Jahmyr Gibbs (+500) is the current favorite to lead the league in rushing yards on Sunday.
Week 5 NFL Rushing Yards Leader Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +500 |
| Bijan Robinson | +550 |
| Derrick Henry | +600 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +650 |
| Braelon Allen | +1300 |
| Aaron Jones | +1300 |
| Chase Brown | +1500 |
| D’Andre Swift | +2000 |
| Ashton Jeanty | +2000 |
| Quinshon Judkins | +2200 |
Week 4 Review
Kenneth Walker continued his solid start to the season, gashing the Las Vegas Raiders for 177 rushing yards and his second weekly rushing title.
Diving into Walker’s situation, the results are not surprising since the Chiefs are 4-0.
Walker is averaging 21.8 carries per game and reached 18 rushes in every game.
The Dobbins ladders were unsuccessful, and I selected another offense that has gained no traction this season, with no evidence it will change.
Ollie Gordon became the first running back to hit 100 rushing yards in a game and lose, rushing for exactly 100 yards.
Rushing Yards Leader Betting Strategy
Predicting weekly rushing leaders involves focusing on the correct details.
The formula to predict most Sunday rushing yards is often predictable.
Volume is king, and positive game script boosts it.
In 2025, 15 of the weekly rushing leaders came from a winning team.
Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, and TreVeyon Henderson were the three running backs who led a week while losing, including two 1-point losses and one 4-point loss.
Final score impacting rushing ceiling games is not a coincidence, as game state is a critical driver of rush attempts.
In 2025, there were 17 instances of a running back reaching 150 or more rushing yards in a single game.
Only 1 running back eclipsed 150 yards in a losing effort, a game in which the Baltimore Ravens squandered a 15-point fourth quarter lead.
Through four weeks, 19 running backs have rushed for 100 yards in a game, and all but 1 have come from the winning team.
No running back has rushed for more than 100 yards on fewer than 17 carries.
In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, identify favorites or short dogs.
Week 5 Shortlist
The Eagles/Jaguars game is excluded from Sunday’s most rushing yards.
Otherwise, Bhayshul Tuten would be a strong candidate this week.
There is only one team on Sunday which is currently lined a favorite of more than a touchdown, and that is the Houston Texans.
The Texans have struggled to run the ball efficiently and have no clear lead running back.
Chase Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs are candidates, as both are the clear lead backs, and the Bengals and Lions are close to a touchdown favorite.
Jonathan Taylor makes sense as a volume play as he has handled 87.8% of the Colts’ running back attempts and is currently third in the league in rush attempts
Most Week 5 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): D’Andre Swift (+2000)
The Chicago Bears lead the league in rushing through the opening month of the season, and the Green Bay Packers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards.
The Bears’ bugaboo is a split backfield that reduces the likelihood of a ceiling game.
Since Week 2 of 2025, Swift has been in a full-blown committee with Kyle Monangai.
He has not exceeded 21 carries in a game and is averaging 58.8% of the running back volume.
That likely changes this week as Monangai has been ruled out with a turf toe injury.
The backfield is Swift’s as long as he holds onto the ball.
This running back duo has only one instance of a player missing a game, and that was when Swift missed a game against the Bengals last season.
Monongai had a career-high 83.9% running back rush share in that game and rushed for 176 yards on 26 carries.
The Packers’ run defense isn’t as porous as the Bengals’ was last season, but I’d expect Swift to have his largest workload of the past two seasons.
This also presents a great matchup in terms of scheme.
As mentioned in Rich Hribar’s Worksheet, the Packers are allowing 6.2 yards per rush on outside zone runs (31st).
The Bears lead the league in outside-zone rushing rate.
In a previous matchup against the Falcons, who are second in outside-zone rate, Atlanta’s Robinson duo combined for 244 rushing yards against the Packers.
This is a great matchup for Swift, who now benefits from a potential increase in carries.
Week 5 Running Back Longshot Bet: Emanuel Wilson Rushing Ladders
- Emanuel Wilson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Emanuel Wilson 70+ Rushing Yards (+125)
- Emanuel Wilson 80+ Rushing Yards (+205)
- Emanuel Wilson 90+ Rushing Yards (+335)
- Emanuel Wilson 100+ Rushing Yards (+425)
- Emanuel Wilson 2+ Touchdowns (+550)
I’m going back to the well with attacking the 49ers’ defensive line this week.
The Seahawks are dealing with several injuries in the running back room, which has allowed Emanuel Wilson to get unexpected volume.
Jadarian Price was placed on the IR, and George Holani was limited in practice on Thursday with a rib injury, leaving Wilson as the beneficiary.
Wilson has eclipsed 20 carries twice in the past three weeks and handled 75% of the running back carries on Sunday.
Outside of Rashid Shaheed, Wilson may be the only active skill position player on the Seahawks roster that has registered a carry this season if Holani sits.
The 49ers are 31st in rushing success rate allowed this season, which is a problem against the Seahawks, who create explosives off the play action.
This matchup is a recipe for running back volume and, given the defensive injuries, could give Wilson an opportunity to exceed expectations.
NFL Weekly Rushing Yards Leaders
| 2026 NFL Week | Rushing Yards Leader | Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenneth Walker | 173 |
| 2 | James Cook | 135 |
| 3 | Bijan Robinson | 194 |
| 4 | Kenneth Walker | 177 |
