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The Bills’ +14 net rest differential ranks #2 in the NFL.
It is also #1 for the Bills in franchise history.
Buffalo plays five games with more rest than their opponent, tied for the most of any team in the NFL this year.
That ties a franchise record (2003 and 2022).
Because the Bills play only two games with less rest than their opponent, Buffalo’s +3 net games with more rest is tied for #1 in the NFL.
Making matters even better for the Bills is that their two games with a rest disadvantage are both only -1 day of rest difference, and both are against two of their worst opponents on the schedule: the Raiders and the Jets.
Buffalo plays their biggest competition in the AFC with a rest or schedule edge of some type (ordered by win total projection):
11.2-win Ravens: Buffalo has +7 days of rest out of their bye
10.4-win Chiefs: rest is identical, but this is a short-week home game on Thursday
10.3-win Chargers: Buffalo is +3 days of rest off a mini-bye, which also comes with the benefit of being a home-to-home mini-bye, so no travel
9.7-win Patriots: the Bills’ first game sees no rest edge, but the second game sees the Bills with a +3 day rest edge after Thanksgiving
9.7-win Broncos: the Bills have a +1 day rest advantage for the Christmas game
Those are the five toughest games the Bills will play in the AFC this year.
Rest seems to matter more for the Bills.
Since 2020, they are 62-18 (78%) when not playing with a rest disadvantage, #1 best in the NFL.
They are 44-33-3 ATS (57.1%), which is #2 in the NFL and has resulted in +9.1% ROI.
However, over that same span, they are just 15-13 (54%) when playing with a rest disadvantage.
They are 12-16 ATS (42.9%) with a -18.2% ROI.
With a rest disadvantage last year, they went 2-4 (33%) and 1-5 ATS (17%) for -68% ROI.
Overall, Buffalo was -7 in net rest edge last year (#29).
Improving to +14 this year is massive.
However, while there are multiple scheduling advantages, the Bills are the only team to face two difficult scheduling disadvantages: three short-week road games and playing four games in 17 days.
Buffalo is the only team to play three short-week road games this year:
- Week 6, they play in Las Vegas after a Monday Night Football road game in Los Angeles vs. the Rams. Buffalo should ideally stay on the West Coast before traveling to Las Vegas to prevent travel and help reduce the impact of this spot.
- Week 10, they play in New York after a Monday Night Football road game in Minnesota against the Vikings.
- Week 16, they play in Denver on a Friday (Christmas) after playing the Bears the prior Saturday.
No other team plays more than two short-week road games, at least as of right now.
But from an equality perspective, 10 teams don’t play any short-week road games this year, including a team like the Bengals, who will be competing with the Bills for the AFC Championship.
Other AFC favorites, such as the Chiefs and Broncos, play only one short-week road game.
So, for teams like the Bengals, Chiefs, and Broncos to play zero or one short-week road game, while the Bills play three, makes the season more challenging for Buffalo in this regard.
In terms of the four games in 17 days, Buffalo is the only team to undergo that type of stretch:
- Monday Night Football, Week 10, in Minnesota
- Sunday, Week 11, in New York against the Jets
- Sunday, Week 12, home against the Dolphins
- Thursday, Week 13, home against the Chiefs
That sequence of Monday-Sunday-Sunday-Thursday crams in those four games into the shortest possible period over four weeks.
Making matters worse for the Bills is that not only are they the only team in the NFL with this quirk, but this stretch also comes late in the season, when they are more likely to be tired.
AND it ends with a pivotal game against the Chiefs, which may decide playoff seeding in the AFC.
At least the game is at home, but it does somewhat reduce the “home-field edge.”
