Every offseason, I break down the NFL offensive trends that will shape the upcoming season, including a deep dive into passing vs. rushing touchdown rates for all 32 NFL teams.
The goal for these articles is straightforward.
We are monitoring the league’s current state to identify any outliers, which we can then incorporate into the upcoming season while also gauging league trends.
While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2026, it is always beneficial to review the league’s overall landscape.
Every NFL season is unique, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.
| 2026 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
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| Draft Kit Hub |
| 2026 League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends |
| NFL Red Zone Trends |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends |
| Touchdown Trends |
| Red Zone Regression: Quarterbacks (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Running Backs (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Wide Receivers (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Tight Ends (Coming soon) |
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League Offensive Touchdown Splits Since 2010
| Year | PaTD% | RuTD% |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 2024 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| 2023 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 2022 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 2021 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 2020 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| 2019 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 2018 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 2017 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 2016 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 2015 | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 2014 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 2013 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 2012 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 2011 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 2010 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
The majority of the league’s offensive touchdowns are still coming through the air, although that rate has been coming down.
61.4% of the offensive touchdowns scored last season were through the air.
Since 2010, only the 2022 and 2024 seasons had a lower rate of passing touchdowns than last year.
If you are looking at the top of the table in relation to the bottom going up, you can easily spot a rise in rushing touchdowns making up a larger portion of the league total.
Rushing is up in total, but this correlates strongly with the rise in quarterback rushing usage rates near the end zone.
Even in a down year for quarterback rushing in bulk, the position still made an impact near the end zone.
Passing Touchdown Regression: What History Tells Us
Since 2010, 75% of teams that were above the league average in passing touchdown reliance experienced a decrease in their passing touchdown share the next season.
Those teams experienced, on average, a 10.6% decline in the share of passing touchdowns, resulting in an average loss of 4.9 passing touchdowns the following season.
As a result, 68.2% of those teams returned the following year and scored more rushing touchdowns, with an average increase of 4.8 rushing scores per team.
Looking at the most recent season, that primarily held again.
The top four teams in terms of touchdown rate through the air in 2024 all experienced a decrease in touchdown rate through the air in 2025.
Of the top 12 teams in passing touchdown rate in 2024, 10 of them scored more rushing touchdowns in 2025.
Flipping things over, 10 of the 16 teams in the bottom half of passing touchdown rate in 2024 threw more touchdown passes last season.
Only five of those teams had a lower rate of their touchdowns coming via passing than the previous season.
With the idea of where regression in touchdown dependency shows up the following season, let’s look at the 2025 team splits and carve out some notes with an eye on the 2026 season.
2025 Team Offensive Touchdown Splits
| Team | Off TDs | PaTD% | RuTD% |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 38 | 76.32% | 23.68% |
| ATL | 36 | 52.78% | 47.22% |
| BAL | 46 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| BUF | 59 | 49.15% | 50.85% |
| CAR | 33 | 72.73% | 27.27% |
| CHI | 47 | 59.57% | 40.43% |
| CIN | 47 | 76.60% | 23.40% |
| CLE | 26 | 61.54% | 38.46% |
| DAL | 49 | 63.27% | 36.73% |
| DEN | 43 | 58.14% | 41.86% |
| DET | 56 | 62.50% | 37.50% |
| GB | 44 | 59.09% | 40.91% |
| HOU | 33 | 72.73% | 27.27% |
| IND | 52 | 48.08% | 51.92% |
| JAX | 51 | 56.86% | 43.14% |
| KC | 38 | 60.53% | 39.47% |
| LAC | 36 | 72.22% | 27.78% |
| LAR | 63 | 73.02% | 26.98% |
| LV | 25 | 80.00% | 20.00% |
| MIA | 37 | 62.16% | 37.84% |
| MIN | 33 | 54.55% | 45.45% |
| NE | 53 | 58.49% | 41.51% |
| NO | 28 | 67.86% | 32.14% |
| NYG | 43 | 48.84% | 51.16% |
| NYJ | 26 | 57.69% | 42.31% |
| PHI | 43 | 60.47% | 39.53% |
| PIT | 42 | 61.90% | 38.10% |
| SEA | 44 | 56.82% | 43.18% |
| SF | 48 | 68.75% | 31.25% |
| TB | 39 | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| TEN | 24 | 62.50% | 37.50% |
| WAS | 39 | 48.72% | 51.28% |
Teams that Leaned on Passing to Reach the End Zone
Last year, 10 teams had over two-thirds of their touchdowns come through the air.
Seven of those teams had 70% of their touchdowns come via passing, while the Raiders were at 80%.
The Raiders only scored 25 offensive touchdowns, while everyone else was in the thirties, but they were just the 34th team since 2010 to have 80% or more of their touchdowns come through the air.
Only two of those previous 33 teams had a higher rate of touchdowns come through the air in the following season, with only 10 throwing more passing touchdowns overall.
28 of those teams had an increase in rushing touchdowns the following season, with an average increase of 5.7 rushing touchdowns per team.
Ashton Jeanty had 100% of the backfield rushes from inside of the 5-yard line as a rookie, but he only had 9 rushes from that area of the field.
The Bengals, Cardinals, Rams, Panthers, Texans, and Chargers all had at least 70% of their touchdowns come through the air.
Since 2010, there have been 145 teams in that bucket before last season.
124 of those teams (87.3%) had a dip in passing touchdown rate the following season, with an average decline of 11.4%.
Those teams threw 4.2 fewer passing touchdowns on average per team.
Only 45 (31.0%) of those teams threw more passing touchdowns the following season.
Of those 45, only 11 had thrown 30 or more touchdown passes the previous season, so they were coming from teams with lower totals to begin with, like the 2025 Raiders.
73.9% of those teams scored more rushing touchdowns the following season, with an average increase of 5.5 per team.
Seven teams fit this mold entering last season.
Six of the seven teams threw fewer passing touchdowns while five of those had a rise in rushing touchdowns.
That is intriguing when factoring in that several highly selected running backs are attached to these teams.
We have talked a lot about the Rams and their tendencies from last season during Matthew Stafford’s MVP run.
73% of their offensive touchdowns were through the air last season.
In the previous three seasons, they had passing touchdown rates of 59.5%, 59.1%, and 51.6%.
If we do see some natural regression and balance in passing-to-rushing scores, Kyren Williams should be the bet to benefit.
Williams played 69.2% of the snaps in the red zone and out-touched Blake Corum 58 to 26 in that area.
Over the past three seasons, Williams has finished second, first, and third in fantasy points scored in the red zone.
I have spent a lot of time pumping up Justin Herbert getting to play with Mike McDaniel, but there is no doubt that Omarion Hampton is going to see a huge spike.
Over his tenure in Miami, McDaniel’s running backs scored 59 rushing touchdowns, which was third in the league.
We were only a year removed from Joe Mixon scoring 11 times on the ground in Houston in 2024, so it is easy to get to David Montgomery having touchdown upside in a larger role with the Texans.
The 2025 Cardinals were playing running backs picked up during the season and were forced into jailbreak passing scripts, which led to 9 rushing touchdowns (tied for 31st).
We are not expecting the Cardinals to light up the box score, but they have signaled all offseason that they want to run more this season.
The question will be how much Tyler Allgeier gets involved in that role versus Jeremiyah Love having all of that work.
Same with Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks.
Hubbard had 10 rushing scores in 2024 (their running backs had 12).
If the Bengals do have any spike in rushing scores, that is more fire to a surging Chase Brown this summer.
Brown played 73.9% of the snaps in the red zone, which was RB5 on the season.
Teams that Leaned on Rushing to Reach the End Zone
Turning things over, five teams last season had 50% or more of their touchdowns come via rushing.
The Bills (1st), the Giants (2nd), and the Colts (5th) were all top five in the league in rushing touchdowns coming from quarterbacks.
The Ravens and Commanders also have mobile quarterbacks that were banged up last year.
Only five teams last season (the Rams, Seahawks, Raiders, Lions, and Dolphins) did not have a single rushing touchdown from a quarterback.
Since 2010, 46 teams have had 50% or more of their touchdowns come from the ground.
41 of those teams have had an increase in passing touchdown dependency the following season, while 33 threw more touchdowns overall (with an average increase of 7.5 per team).
While there is a signal here for teams that are throwing more touchdowns this season, the overall impact of passing scores is tougher to gauge.
The majority of teams with more rushing scores than passing scores inherently did not throw many touchdowns to begin with.
Of those 46 teams, just 11 of them had 20 or more passing touchdowns, and only three threw 25 or more touchdowns.
The Bills are more of an interesting case because in 2024, they had the most passing touchdowns for a team (30) that had more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns since 2010.
Two other teams (the Vikings and Falcons) had over 45% of their touchdowns come via rushing.
82.8% of teams that rely on 45% or more of their touchdowns coming via rushing have come back the following season and increased their passing touchdown rate with an average increase of 7.8 passing touchdowns per team.
With the addition of Kyler Murray, the Vikings could fit more of the mold of those previous teams.
Wrapping this up by extending the arbitrary thresholds to potentially spot other teams that climb in passing touchdown numbers, 73.2% of all teams that have fewer than 60% of their touchdowns coming through the air have come back with a higher passing touchdown rate the following season.
Those teams averaged 4.8 more passing scores the following season, with an average loss of 4.3 rushing touchdowns.
Last season, 12 of the 17 teams that fit that bill had an increased passing touchdown rate with fewer rushing touchdowns in 2025.
14 teams are in the grouping this season.
Which NFL Teams Are Expected to Have More Passing Touchdowns in 2026?
- Falcons
- Seahawks
- Jaguars
- Jets
- Packers
The Bills, Commanders, Giants, Vikings, and Ravens stand out as teams primed to have a higher rate of touchdowns through the air, but mobile quarterbacks somewhat mitigate that.
The Colts are a wild card, factoring in the injury to Daniel Jones.
A weaker signal, but one nonetheless, are the Bears, Broncos, and Patriots.
Which NFL Teams Are Expected to Have Fewer Passing Touchdowns in 2026?
- Raiders
- Cardinals
- Bengals
- Rams
- Panthers
- Chargers
- Texans
