NFL Best Prop Bets: Week 1 Picks
- Christian Watson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Juwan Johnson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Chase Brown Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Sharp Betting Tools:
NFL Week 1 Best Prop Bet: Christian Watson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Watson tore his ACL on January 5, 2025, in Week 18 of the 2024 season.
He made his season debut last year on October 26, 2025, in Week 8.
Remarkably, Watson didn’t skip a beat.
In fact, he played the best football of his career.
The speedster can get off to a fast start this year, and the Packers might lean into the passing attack more while sorting through their backfield with Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner’s Exempt List.
The matchup against the Vikings could also prompt them to pass more.
Per TruMedia, the Vikings were tied for 12th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per designed rush in 2025 and fifth in yards before contact allowed per rush attempt (1.05).
Minnesota’s coverage tendencies also boost Watson’s receiving outlook.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Vikings were first in two-high coverage rate (69.0%) and first in blitz rate (44.7%) in 2025.
Watson rattled off a 20% target rate per route and 2.42 yards per route run (Y/RR) on 119 routes against two-high coverage in 2025.
Furthermore, he had a 26% target rate per route and 2.47 Y/RR on 77 routes against the blitz last season, reeling in 10 receptions on 20 targets for 190 receiving yards.
Watson exceeded 55.5 receiving yards only five times in 11 games in 2025.
That said, the Packers have thinned their wide receiving corps, and Watson should exceed last year’s 68.6% route participation rate in a less crowded wideout room.
On a more expansive route participation rate, with a possible uptick in the Packers’ passing rate from last year’s 24th ranking in pass rate over expected (-2.1% PROE) out of the gate, Watson should clear 55.5 receiving yards.
NFL Week 1 Best Prop Bet: Juwan Johnson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kellen Moore brought his fast-paced brand of offense to the Saints last year.
New Orleans played at the NFL’s fastest pace in 2025, which is favorable for play volume.
The Saints were only 19th in PROE (-0.6%), but their passing tendencies ratcheted up down the stretch.
In the final four weeks of the regular season, New Orleans was tied for third in PROE (5.0%).
They did play the Titans during those four weeks, and Tennessee’s defense faced an NFL-high 6.4% PROE.
However, the Saints also played the Panthers, Jets, and Falcons in that period, and they ranked 25th (-1.6%), 21st (-0.3%), and 20th (0.3%), respectively, in PROE faced in the 2025 regular season.
The Saints had a banged-up backfield at that point, but Moore’s willingness to cut Tyler Shough loose can also be viewed as bullish for his trust in the young quarterback.
Speaking of Shough, Johnson excelled with the rookie quarterback.
In 10 games that Shough played at least 20 snaps last season, Johnson recorded a 71.3% route participation rate, 16.2% target share, 20% target rate per route, 17.7% air yards share, 8.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 4.6 receptions per game, 57.4 receiving yards per game, and 1.97 Y/RR.
The pass-catching tight end cleared 41.5 receiving yards in five of his last eight games last year.
That includes the final three, when he ripped off 89, 95, and 61 receiving yards.
Johnson can pick up where he left off for the Saints, and with New Orleans serving as one of the week’s biggest underdogs, he should be in a negative gamescript, necessitating the Saints air it out to keep up with Detroit’s high-powered offense.
NFL Week 1 Best Prop Bet: Chase Brown Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
I’m not on an island on the Sharp Football Analysis team for this pick.
Rich Hribar shouted out Brown over 23.5 receiving yards on the NFL Week 1 Best Bets & Player Props Show.
A top-down view is immediately favorable for Brown’s receiving outlook.
Since 2023, the Bengals are tied for first in PROE (7.9%).
Conversely, the Buccaneers have been the NFL’s biggest pass funnel since 2023, facing the highest PROE (4.3%).
The Bengals don’t need their arm twisted to let Joe Burrow cook, but the matchup should also push them in that direction.
The matchup is also tasty for Brown.
In the 2025 regular season, the Bucs allowed the most receiving yards per game (50.1) and the most yards per target (9.90) to running backs.
Brown should also be leaned on as an outlet against Todd Bowles‘ blitz-heavy tendencies.
Tampa Bay had the third-highest blitz rate (35.3%) in 2025, and they’ve had the second-highest blitz rate (40.8%) since 2023.
Meanwhile, among players on the Bengals with at least 40 routes against the blitz since 2024, Brown is tied for second in targets per route run (0.25) and has 30 targets, 23 receptions, 158 receiving yards, and 1.30 Y/RR on 122 routes against the blitz.
Finally, in 23 games in which Burrow has played at least 20 snaps since 2024, Brown has tallied a 48.0% route participation rate, 11.3% target share, 0.21 TPRR, 3.7 receptions per game, 23.8 receiving yards per game, and 1.20 Y/RR.
Brown should surpass those marks against Tampa Bay’s pass-funnel and blitz-heavy defense, putting him over 23.5 receiving yards.
