2026 NFL Prop Bets: Best QB, RB & WR Over/Unders
- Josh Allen – Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- Fernando Mendoza – Under 2299.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The picks above are just a sampling of the FREE player prop picks offered at Sharp Football Analysis.
Click on any of the articles below for the full betting card.
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Quarterback Season Props: 2026 Passing Overs & Unders
- Josh Allen – Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- Fernando Mendoza – Under 2299.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Josh Allen 2026 Over/Under Prediction
The Buffalo offense played at the league’s slowest pace and ran the ball at the second-highest rate last season, which seems very counterintuitive for a team with Josh Allen at quarterback.
Since the start of 2022, Allen is second in EPA per play and has finished among the top four quarterbacks in EPA per play in every single year.
Despite an effective rushing attack, it would be logical to find a way to lean on the most consistent quarterback over the past four seasons.
Speculation around the Bills is that new head coach Joe Brady will have a similar run-first offense.
However, the run rate may have been dictated by Brady’s boss.
His predecessor, Ken Dorsey, was fired after Allen opened the season with 10 interceptions in the opening 10 games of the 2023 season.
Up until that point, the Bills had passed 3.3% above expectation.
Since Brady took over, the Bills have consistently been below expectations.
In his one full season in Carolina, with Teddy Bridgewater and PJ Walker at quarterback, Brady’s offense finished the season with a 2.7% pass rate above expectation.
It is in the range of outcomes that the Bills have a large year-over-year uptick in passing rate under Brady.
D.J. Moore entered the league at 21 years old, posted four 1,000-yard seasons in his first six years, is only 29, and represents a significant upgrade over any of the wide receivers Allen had on the field last year.
An already thin wide receiver room battled injuries last year.
Josh Palmer missed five games with an ankle injury, Khalil Shakir played through a nagging knee injury, and Dalton Kincaid missed five games and had his snaps limited due to an ongoing knee issue.
Improved personnel and receiver health could play a part in the Bills playing more aggressively this season.
According to Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, the Bills faced the second-easiest schedule of opposing passing offenses last season.
They are projected to face the 16th-ranked schedule of opposing passing offenses this season.
That projection is based on last season’s metrics, so they could potentially face a more difficult schedule given that they get the Chargers, Vikings, Ravens, Raiders and Texans.
All of those teams could improve upon last season’s offensive ranking.
In the last two seasons, when Bills opponents scored 30 or more points, Allen averaged 34 passes and 293 passing yards per game.
He averaged 25.8 pass attempts and 194.4 yards per game when opponents scored fewer than 30 points.
There have been nine games over the past two seasons in which the Bills allowed 10 or fewer points.
Allen averaged 22.2 pass attempts in those games.
The Bills’ increased difficulty in terms of offensive opponents raises Allen’s passing floor and potentially boosts his passing ceiling as the team could be pushed into more offensive shootouts.
The Sharp Football Analysis projections are aggressive in factoring in increased passing from Allen and are well above the Vegas passing yards total.
ESPN’s publicly available projections have a moderate increase in passing attempts and yardage from last year and are still more than 300 yards over the passing total.
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Fernando Mendoza 2026 Over/Under Prediction
Taking the under on Fernando Mendoza’s season-long total is a bet on how many starts he will make more than how much success he will have in his rookie season.
The Raiders have little incentive to rush Mendoza as the team looks to be playing the long game after finishing dead last in 2025.
This isn’t a roster that can make up for significant talent deficiencies in one season, and the team hired a new head coach with long-term job security, increasing the odds that Mendoza will be slow-played in his opening season.
The Raiders signed veteran Kirk Cousins as a bridge, and Klint Kubiak has been on record since drafting Mendoza that there is no rush to having the rookie start.
This bet is calculating the possible outcomes about when Mendoza is named the starting quarterback.
The Raiders open the season against the Dolphins, who are the current favourites to hold the #1 pick in 2027.
Assuming Cousins wins the opening game in which the Raiders are favorites, Mendoza’s first start could be pushed back until November, which would allow for a maximum of 10 starts for the first-overall pick.
The Raiders have a Week 13 bye, which is favorable to the under
An early bye would make it easier to insert the rookie earlier in the season.
From Week 4 through Week 7, the Raiders face a gauntlet of difficult opponents.
Games against the Patriots, Chiefs, Bills, and Rams seem like an unlikely time to insert a rookie quarterback.
A Week 8 matchup against the Jets seems like the most likely scenario for the Raiders to start Mendoza.
If limited to the 10 final starts, which include two games against the Broncos and a game against the Seahawks, 230 yards per game given the limited receiving options outside of Brock Bowers is a lofty target.
The Raiders understand they are in rebuilding mode, evidenced by a failed Maxx Crosby trade earlier in the offseason, so it makes sense that Cousins starts in the opening months of the season.
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Running Back Season Props: 2026 Rushing Overs & Unders
Coming Soon!
Wide Receiver Season Props: 2026 Receiving Overs & Unders
Coming Soon!
