You are probably hearing great things about Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, but you’re curious about what a team chapter looks like and how predictive and helpful it will be heading into next season.
We’ve got you covered.
Warren Sharp had significant concerns about the Commanders regressing in 2025 based on several factors, including historic success on fourth downs during the 2024 season.
As we enter 2025, the expectations are massively different based on how the 2024 season concluded.
It was not just a 12-5 season.
It was a trip all the way to the NFC Championship game with a rookie quarterback.
Instead of being favored in three games on lookahead lines, as they were last summer, the Commanders are now favored in 12 games this fall.
They have a 9.5 win total, up 3 from last season.
Before we dissect their 2025 offseason moves, their upcoming schedule, and what year two from Jayden Daniels might look like, let’s first get a better understanding of “how” they made their run to the NFC Championship last season.
Because, as exciting a run as that was for any football fan watching an underdog carve its way through the postseason, I guarantee there are several things you didn’t realize about this Commanders team that are extremely important to be aware of and useful to consider with regard to setting future expectations.
The Commanders’ aggressiveness on fourth down took over NFL discussions last year.
The fact they parlayed that aggressiveness into a trip to the NFC Championship was something notable and helped endear the team’s “win at all costs” mentality.
But lost in the discussion was the fact the Commanders went for it on fourth down more often in 2023, 2022, and 2021.
Fourth down attempts by year:
2024: 23 att ◄
2023: 29 att
2022: 25 att
2021: 32 att
Even if you want to isolate only “manageable” fourth down situations, such as fourth and 4 or less, the Commanders went for it more in 2023 (22 times), 2022 (20 times), and 2021 (22 times) than they did in 2024 (19 times).
The difference in 2024 was not in the “desire” to go for it.
The difference was their ability to convert, and that was thanks primarily to Daniels with help from Kingsbury.
The Commanders converted 87% of their fourth down attempts in 2024:
20 of 23
They didn’t come close to that rate in prior years:
2024: 87% ◄
2023: 55%
2022: 48%
2021: 50%
But it wasn’t just previous Commanders offenses that didn’t come close to that 87% conversion rate.
Shockingly, no team in modern NFL history has come close to that rate.
Looking back to at least 2000, no team with over 10 fourth down attempts in a season converted 87% or better…except the 2024 Commanders.
Expanding the sample, look at the top performing teams with over 15 fourth down attempts since 2000:
87%: 2024 Commanders (23 att) ◄
81%: 2018 Saints (16 att)
80%: 2006 Patriots (20 att)
78%: 2022 Rams (19 att)
77%: 2008 Patriots (22 att), 2002 Colts (17 att), 2005 Patriots (17 att)
76%: 2020 Raiders (21 att)
75%: 2009 Jets (20 att)
74%: 2005 Broncos (19 att), 2004 49ers (19 att)
73%: 2023 Eagles (26 att), 2024 Bills (22 att)
Washington’s efficiency on fourth down was the best we’ve seen in modern NFL history.
When fourth down aggressiveness is mentioned, the first thought that pops into someone’s mind is the Philadelphia Eagles and their tush push.
But the Commanders were actually more efficient on short yardage fourth downs than the Eagles.
Looking at all teams on fourth and short (1-2 yards), the Commanders were the best team in the NFL last year.
Again, not just last year. In modern NFL history:
88%: 2024 Commanders (16 att) ◄, 2017 Eagles (16 att)
85%: 2007 Jaguars (20 att)
84%: 2022 Eagles (19 att)
82%: 2024 Eagles (17 att), 2021 Ravens (17 att)
81%: 2023 Eagles (16 att)
80%: 2021 Titans (15 att), 2021 Raiders (15 att)
The Commanders were even better than the Eagles and their tush push.
What’s truly most incredible is the Commanders had 15 run plays on fourth down and were able to convert 13 of those runs into first downs without using a single QB sneak.
NOT ONCE!
QB sneaks (including tush pushes) are the NFL’s most efficient conversion concept on fourth and short.
Last year, we saw 70 QB sneaks on fourth and 1, and 90% were converted into first downs (63 of 70).
The next closest conversion rate was 70% (inside zone runs).
Looking at the last three years, we saw 233 QB sneaks on fourth down with 1 to 2 yards to go.
A total of 82.4% were converted into first downs (192 of 233).
That rate was, by far, the most efficient of any run concept. No other rate was higher than 69.8%.
And yet, the Commanders converted 13 of 15 fourth down runs without a single QB sneak.
Aside from three Daniels scrambles, the rest of the runs were various concepts including inside zone, power, duo, and outside zone with a couple of trick plays sprinkled in.
In addition, the Commanders converted 7 of 8 fourth down passes (88%).
Where does 88% rank in modern NFL history?
The best in the NFL since 2007.
Among teams with at least 7 fourth down pass attempts, only two teams were better than the 2024 Commanders: the 2002 Colts (9 of 10, 90%) and the 2007 Cardinals (9 of 10).
The QBs of those two teams? Hall of Famers Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner.
The Commanders had rookie QB Jayden Daniels converting fourth downs at a rate only bested by two Hall of Fame QBs.
The Commanders gained 54.55 total EPA on their 23 fourth down plays.
That’s the most in modern NFL history and a full 10.0 EPA more than the next closest team.
Warren Sharp’s 500+ page full color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have previously read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
Warren Sharp’s book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies, with one goal in mind: to prepare you for the 2026 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal review and retention.
