You are probably hearing great things about Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, but you’re curious about what a team chapter looks like and how predictive and helpful it will be heading into next season.
We’ve got you covered.
» Download the 2025 Rams Team Chapter
While Matthew Stafford‘s uncertain injury situation put us off sending out any Rams futures bets, Warren Sharp was high on Los Angeles heading into the 2025 season.
The 2024 Rams were a conundrum on third down.
They were incredible on early downs, but ultimately, those third-down issues were their undoing.
Only 42.9% of their series reached third down, #7 best in the NFL.
They averaged the #5 shortest distance to go on third down, #5 best in the NFL.
And yet, they converted just 36.8% of third downs, which was #24 in the NFL.
The closest correlation to converting on third down is the distance to go.
It’s far easier to convert when you are close to the marker and far more difficult when you are far from the marker.
The Rams were fine super close (one to two yards) – their 73% conversion rate ranked #4 best.
But from three to seven yards, they ranked #31 in conversion rate.
Specifically, from three to five yards, they ranked #30 in conversion rate.
From six to seven yards, they ranked #32 in conversion rate.
For the most part, the issue was Matthew Stafford, who produced horrific results on third and fourth downs.
Out of 33 quarterbacks with at least 80 dropbacks on these downs, Stafford ranked:
#31 in EPA/dropback (-0.33)
#29 in success rate (33%)
#31 in Y/A (5.8)
#30 in first down rate (30.6%)
This was surprising given how solid Stafford was on early downs.
On early downs, out of 45 qualifying QBs, Stafford ranked:
#2 in EPA/dropback (+0.20)
#3 in success rate (52%)
#9 in Y/A (7.8)
Leaguewide comparisons tell the story, but looking at Stafford’s career also adds useful context.
On early downs in 2024, Stafford set a career high in success rate, posted the #3 best EPA per dropback of his 15-year career, the #4 best mark in completion rate, and his interception rate was the #4 lowest of his career.
But on third and fourth downs in 2024, Stafford produced career lows in EPA per dropback and success rate.
He also delivered his worst yards per attempt average since his rookie season and his worst completion rate (55%) since his second season.
I expect this to regress in 2025.
Stafford’s performance on third and fourth downs WILL improve in 2025 and trend more towards his early-down performance last year.
» Download the 2025 Rams Team Chapter
Order Warren Sharp’s 2026 Book Now
Warren Sharp’s 500+ page full color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have previously read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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Warren Sharp’s book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies, with one goal in mind: to prepare you for the 2026 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal review and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven, and full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play calling analysis, and team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis: positional spending, roster construction, and cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals and analysis of the futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
