Why the Vikings Removed One of Their Best Offensive Concepts
In 2024, 50% of Sam Darnold‘s passes for the Vikings offense were thrown between the numbers.
That ranked #19 highest of 47 QBs.
In 2025, the Vikings intentionally removed most of their over-the-middle passing concepts to keep the “line of sight as simple as possible” for J.J. McCarthy, according to The Athletic.
As such, only 38% of McCarthy’s attempts were thrown between the numbers, which ranked #42 of 45 QBs.
When he did throw these passes, the results were quite poor.
On passes thrown between the numbers in 2025, McCarthy ranked:
#43 in accuracy rate
#43 in completion rate (67%)
#42 in EPA per attempt (-0.01)
#37 in success rate (47%)
His interception rate of 7.1% was the highest in the NFL.
His TD to INT ratio of 0.7:1 was #42 in the NFL.
How McCarthy Compared to Darnold
This drop-off in production was substantial compared to what the Vikings received from Darnold over the middle of the field in 2024.
On Darnold’s passes thrown between the numbers in 2024, he ranked:
#4 in yards per attempt (9.4)
#5 in success rate (60%)
#10 in EPA per attempt (+0.34)
#14 in completion rate (77%)
Unlike McCarthy, Darnold’s interception rate of 2.0% was well below average, and his TD per INT ratio of 2.8:1 was #8 in the NFL.
2025 J.J. McCarthy vs. 2024 Sam Darnold Between the Numbers Throws
| Quarterback | Season | EPA/DB | Success Rate | Y/A | Comp% | Sack+INT% | TD/Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 2025 | -0.01 (#42) | 47.1% (#37) | 8.1 (#20) | 67.1% (#43) | 7.1% (#45) | 0.7 (#42) |
| Sam Darnold | 2024 | 0.34 (#10) | 59.8% (#5) | 9.4 (#4) | 76.6% (#14) | 2.0% (#16) | 2.8 (#8) |
Vikings Deemphasized One of Their Best Concepts
Another critical distinction to make is that when comparing the Vikings’ passing efficiency over the last two seasons is that they were MUCH better when passing between the numbers than outside the numbers.
Whether looking at yards per attempt, success rate, or EPA per attempt, the Vikings offense delivered more efficiency between the numbers in 2024 than outside the numbers.
Thus, when the Vikings replaced Darnold with McCarthy, it had a massive impact.
The best part of their passing attack (passing between the numbers) was removed.
When they did throw between the numbers, they received near NFL-worst efficiency from McCarthy.
And it was so clearly an issue that the staff took note and intentionally removed these concepts from the offense, those same concepts that led them to a 14-3 record in 2024 with Darnold.
Was This a McCarthy Problem?
Let’s now discuss a few fascinating points of context surrounding this.
First, it appears the Vikings removed these concepts only in McCarthy’s games.
Carson Wentz threw 47% of attempts between the numbers, and Max Brosmer threw 52% of attempts between the numbers.
McCarthy was down at 38%, well below the NFL average of 48%.
Additionally, the Vikings’ schedule of pass defenses in 2025 offers some intrigue.
Minnesota played a league-average schedule of pass defenses last year.
They ranked #15 in strength of opposing pass defenses faced.
For the season, they played only seven games against teams with top-12 ranked pass defenses.
- Week 4 vs. #12 Steelers
- Week 5 vs. #2 Browns
- Week 7 vs. #3 Eagles
- Week 8 vs. #9 Chargers
- Week 9 vs. #11 Lions
- Week 13 vs. #8 Seahawks
- Week 17 vs. #11 Lions
Amazingly, McCarthy started ONLY ONE of these games, seeming to start games against poor pass defenses but missing those against his toughest opponents.
Vikings 2025 Pass Defense Strength of Schedule
Minnesota held him out from Week 3 through Week 8 with an ankle injury.
There was debate as to whether McCarthy could have returned before Week 9, but holding him out those extra few games allowed him to miss games in Week 7 against the #3 Eagles and Week 8 against the #9 Chargers.
After a bad loss to the Packers in which McCarthy completed only 12 passes, threw 2 interceptions, and averaged 4.6 Y/A, he was put into delayed concussion protocol.
He missed the next game, which happened to be against the #8 pass defense of the Seahawks.
McCarthy also missed the Week 17 game against the Lions after suffering a hand injury in Week 16 against the lowly Giants.
He returned to play in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Packers, who were resting starters to prepare for the playoffs.
What’s Next for the Vikings Offense in 2026?
The reason to dive into this detail is that McCarthy was arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL passing over the middle of the field last year, to the point that the team altered the offense.
And that was despite not facing ANY strong pass defenses.
If the coaching staff was aware and concerned about his inability to be productive over the middle of the field, it begs the question of what happens to the offense moving forward.
Clearly, as demonstrated in 2024, over-the-middle passing concepts are something this staff likes to use and builds the offense around to a degree (considering they were used above average and with great results in 2024).
The staff will have to either figure out how to offset that lost production by getting McCarthy to excel at passing to other areas of the field, or McCarthy will have to make massive strides in 2026.
