This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp’s Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
Sam Darnold’s Passing Splits: Red Zone vs. Outside Red Zone
Look at Sam Darnold’s passing splits.
Outside the red zone:
#11 in EPA/attempt (+0.11)
#4 in success rate (51%)
#6 in first down rate (37%)
#9 in completion rate (69%)
Inside the red zone:
#32 in EPA/attempt (-0.32)
#32 in success rate (34%)
#30 in first down rate (28%)
#19 in completion rate (58%)
Red Zone Accuracy Breakdown
In these high-leverage situations, Darnold’s accuracy goes to hell.
Darnold’s accuracy outside the red zone: #3 of 36 QBs
Darnold’s accuracy inside the red zone: #27 of 36 QBs
Something has to give in this matchup.
The Patriots’ red zone pass defense has been shockingly terrible against terrible quarterbacks.
Sam Darnold has been a terrible quarterback in the red zone this year.
Whoever steps up in this particular battle will go a long way toward winning the war.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp’s Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Plus: You’ll get ALL of Warren Sharp’s Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:
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- All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays
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Seahawks Offensive Game Plan for Super Bowl 60 Success
When Sam Darnold is being kept on schedule, asked to pass on early downs, and plays with a lead, he’s been outstanding this year.
But when he’s been asked to perform when the moment matters most, he’s struggled.
I’m talking red zone vs. non-red zone and early down vs. third down.
We addressed the red zone, so now let’s address early downs and third downs.
Why Early Down Efficiency Is Critical for Seattle
Early Downs:
#5 in EPA/attempt (+0.15)
#4 in success rate (50%)
#1 in Y/A (9.0)
#5 in completion rate (71%)
#4 in accuracy
#5 in first down rate (35%)
Third Downs:
#22 in EPA/attempt (-0.15)
#8 in success rate (42%)
#22 in Y/A (7.0)
#18 in completion rate (59%)
#18 in accuracy
#12 in first down rate (38%)
The Patriots blew out the 49ers in the Divisional Round, so there wasn’t an opportunity for Darnold to be hyper-stressed in any critical third-down situations.
But he did play outstanding against the Rams on third down in the NFC Championship, going 6 of 9 and converting 60% of dropbacks into first downs while averaging +0.83 EPA per attempt.
It was one of Darnold’s best games of his career, so how much of that is repeatable against a lesser-known opponent like the Patriots rather than the familiar opponent of the Rams?
That remains to be seen.
Keeping Darnold On Schedule: The Key to Victory
If the Seahawks are able to play efficient offense on early downs and bypass more third downs, it will immensely help the team by avoiding putting Darnold in those high-leverage, third-down situations.
So, avoiding unproductive plays on early downs is vital, including running Kenneth Walker into brick walls for no gain on first downs (if the Patriots can limit the Seahawks run offense).
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp’s Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
