NFL Best Bets: Week 4 Picks
- Packers @ Buccaneers Under 38.5 Points
- Dolphins @ Vikings Under 39 Points
Sharp Betting Tools:
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Packers at Buccaneers Under 38.5 Points
Green Bay’s offensive line is a train wreck.
It was already a question mark entering the season, but injuries have turned it into a roaring tire fire.
The Packers rank dead last in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric and 19th in run-block win rate.
As a result, per TruMedia, the Packers are 31st in pressure rate allowed and 26th in yards before contact per rush (0.92).
Predictably, Jordan Love‘s play has suffered when he’s pressured.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Love has a 103.6 quarterback rating on 81 unpressured dropbacks this year.
He has a 45.8 rating on 51 pressured dropbacks.
Todd Bowles doesn’t need his arm twisted to send pressure, either.
The Buccaneers are fifth in blitz rate (42.5%) this year and second in blitz rate (40.2%) since 2024.
The Vikings relentlessly blitzed Love in Week 1, and he has a 79.8 rating on 56 dropbacks against the blitz this season.
Green Bay’s non-Josh Jacobs running backs also don’t give them a consistent, quality running game to lean on and take pressure off Love.
Furthermore, the Bucs are a pass-funnel defense, ranking seventh in pass rate over expected faced (4.3% PROE) this year and first in PROE faced (4.5%) since 2024.
The Bucs are also unlikely to find much offensive success.
Rookie undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels will start for Tampa Bay.
While Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades aren’t the be-all-and-end-all, among 47 FBS quarterbacks in this year’s NFL Draft class with at least 200 dropbacks in the 2025 season, Daniels ranked 23rd in PFF’s passing grade.
Daniels completed only 59.3% of his 622 pass attempts and had 36 passing touchdowns and 19 interceptions in his final two collegiate seasons at Kansas.
Tampa Bay has also had a below-average offensive line this year by ESPN’s win-rate metrics, ranking 24th in pass-block win rate and 16th in run-block win rate.
In Tampa Bay’s defense, they rank ninth in pressure rate allowed but are tied for 19th in yards before contact per rush attempt (1.03).
So, the line might be average.
In totality, both offenses have struggled this year.
According to Sumer Sports, the Packers are tied for 25th in expected points added (EPA) per play, and the Bucs are dead last.
It’s difficult to get excited about what the offenses bring to the table in this old NFC Central matchup, and exceeding 38.5 points feels like a bar too high to clear.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Dolphins at Vikings Under 39 Points
Shockingly, the Dolphins are the A-side offense in this matchup by EPA, ranking 26th.
The Vikings are right behind them at 27th.
Yeesh.
The below-average offenses start at quarterback.
Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 25 plays this year, Malik Willis is 28th in EPA per play, and Kyler Murray is 36th.
Willis will find the sledding especially tough this week.
De’Von Achane will miss the rest of the year, and Brian Flores has been in his bag.
The Vikings are first in points allowed per drive (1.11), second in defensive points allowed per game (13.7), tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (4.8), first in defensive success rate, second in pressure rate, first in sack rate, and eighth in interception rate.
Frankly, one of the biggest threats to this pick missing and the game going over is Flores’ defense making splash plays that lead to short fields or directly to points on scoop-and-scores or pick-sixes.
The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate (70.9%) this season and since 2024 (45.8%).
Willis has a putrid 42.1 quarterback rating on 34 blitzed dropbacks this season.
Minnesota should enjoy more success than Miami.
Still, they’re unlikely to be pushed and can play an under-brand of football.
This year, the Vikings are 29th in PROE (-5.4%) and 32nd in neutral pace.
Minnesota had a 3.0% PROE in Murray’s return last week, but they faced the pass-funnel Bucs and still played slowly.
On the other side, the Dolphins are 31st in PROE (-7.0%), 31st in situation-neutral pace, and 28th in pace when trailing.
Ultimately, this game looks like a slog, and points will be difficult to come by.
