The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Vikings-Bucs Week 3 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 24.0 | 13 | Points/Gm | 23.0 | 16 |
| 12.5 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 28.0 | 24 |
| 56.0 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 57.0 | 23 |
| 68.5 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.0 | 15 |
| 4.3 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 15 |
| 5.2 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 15 |
| 55.4% | 1 | Rush% | 39.5% | 25 |
| 44.6% | 32 | Pass% | 60.5% | 8 |
| 38.0% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 42.4% | 12 |
| 62.0% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 57.6% | 21 |
- The Vikings have 116 fewer penalty yards than their opponents, the largest margin in the league.
- 11.6% of Minnesota’s plays have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Vikings are allowing a league-low 3.6 yards per play on first down.
- The Buccaneers are allowing a league-low 2.7 yards per play on early-down runs.
- The Vikings lead the league in blitz rate (75.9%) and pressure rate (50.6%).
- Tampa Bay ranks 31st in pressure rate without blitzing through two weeks (20%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Vikings vs. Bucs Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield has struggled out of the blocks this season.
Questions remain about another new offense, but the Bucs are incorporating a lot of the things we are looking for.
Mayfield is in the middle of the pack with a 41.2% rate under center (17th).
The Bucs are using pre-snap motion at the highest rate in the league (72.4%).
They are running play action at the third-highest rate (33.9%).
Mayfield has played poorly to open the season.
He is averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt (26th) with 1 touchdown.
14.5% of his throws have been inaccurate (29th).
Mayfield has completed 44% (11 of 25) of his throws 10 or more yards downfield.
Only Cooper Rush (37.5%) and Aaron Rodgers (34.8%) are lower.
23.7% of Mayfield’s dropbacks have resulted in a loss of 1.0 or worse (28th).
He has also lost the most EPA so far via sacks (-18.75)
That is a red flag here.
Minnesota leads the NFL in pressure rate (50.6%) and is tied for the most sacks (8).
When they pressure quarterbacks, the Vikings have allowed a 38.2% completion rate (13 of 34) and notched 2 interceptions.
This is not the spot to chase Mayfield turning in a spike week, leaving him as a QB2.
Kyler Murray
Murray returns this week after missing Week 2 with a concussion.
We didn’t get much of a reveal on how the marriage between Murray and this new offense will work since he left Week 1 after only 11 snaps.
He was 3 for 5 for 18 yards (3.6 Y/A) with an interception in the opener.
With Murray sidelined for most of the year (and playing in rainy conditions last week), the Vikings have skewed run-heavy.
I believe they were always going to run more this season, but the Vikings threw the ball 11.6% below expectations in Week 1 (30th) and 7.2% below expectations in Week 2 (26th).
That is going to be harder to do here.
First, the Vikings’ backfield is battered.
Jordan Mason is on IR, and Aaron Jones is in question to play this week.
The Bucs are also a stout run defense, which goes beyond the two-game sample to open the season.
The Tampa Bay pass defense, however, has been a mixed bag.
They have struggled to get pressure (30th) despite remaining blitz-heavy under Todd Bowles.
The Bucs are third in blitz rate (44.4%) but 28th in pressure rate on those blitzes (34.4%).
They have allowed a 75.4% completion rate through two games, second only to the Dolphins (78.8%).
But they have also only allowed 7.6 Y/A (19th) and 10.0 yards per completion (10th).
Tackling has been an early-season issue, as the Bucs have allowed 301 yards after the catch (30th).
This is a spot where I would prefer to use Murray as a QB2, since we are trying to put together what this offense could look like under Murray.
It is an interesting fit.
O’Connell has utilized a high rate of under-center passing and play action, both of which Murray has used sparingly.
We also have to see how much he will run coming back from the concussion.
That said, there’s potential here, too.
Not only because Deshaun Watson was the QB12 in Tampa last week, but because the Vikings may be pushed to throw more due to the matchup and their backfield situation.
Vikings vs. Bucs Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 3 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Falcons @ Packers | Thursday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Bills | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Browns | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Lions | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Dolphins | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Giants | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Jaguars | Sunday — 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday — 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Bucs | Sunday — 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | Sunday — 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Saints | Sunday — 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Broncos | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Bears | Monday Night Football |
