Most of the fantasy football conversations about 2026 free agency will focus on the biggest names, and that makes sense.
In fact, my friend Rich Hribar has in-depth looks at all the biggest moves, which you can find linked in the explore more table below.
I do want to highlight his recent look at the Kyler Murray signing as one to read, but they are all good.
I also had some quick thoughts on the biggest moves in our fantasy free agency tracker.
But often, the biggest fantasy winners and losers of free agency are not the guys who got the most money.
In fact, oftentimes the biggest winners and losers were not free agents at all.
Let’s dive a little deeper to identify some players who got a big fantasy boost over the last week, and some players who saw their fantasy stock dive.
For full contract details and more of a “real football” look at the biggest moves, see our NFL Free Agency Signing Tracker.
Explore more 2026 NFL Free Agency content:
2026 Free Agency Fantasy Winners
Winner: Kenneth Walker
Rich Hribar covered all the biggest moves of free agency, including Kenneth Walker, so I would suggest you go read what he has to say.
Click here for Rich’s analysis
I did want to add one more point to this clearly great fantasy opportunity for Walker.
Walker has always been an explosive back, gaining at least 10 yards on 12.1% of his rushing attempts.
That number was 14.9% last year despite facing a light box on just 17.2% of his attempts.
Overall, Seattle running backs saw the fifth-lowest rate of light boxes last season.
The Chiefs faced the seventh-highest rate of light boxes.
League-wide, the rate of explosive runs against boxes with seven or more defenders was 9.2%.
The rate of explosive runs against light boxes was 12.5%.
So, Walker consistently created big plays in a system that invited heavier boxes, which are tougher to get big gains against.
Now, he is going to an offense that has traditionally created an above-average rate of light boxes.
Seems pretty good.
Winner: Emeka Egbuka
This one seems pretty obvious with Mike Evans leaving for the San Francisco 49ers, but I wanted to highlight the difference in target rates for Emeka Egbuka with and without Evans on the field.
Egbuka had a rough end to his rookie season, in part because he rushed back from and was playing through a hamstring injury.
He also saw his target rate dip dramatically with Evans on the field.
On 378 routes with Evans off the field, Egbuka was targeted on 26.2% of his routes and saw 28% of Tampa’s overall targets.
He averaged 1.94 yards per route run, which would have ranked 18th among qualified receivers last season.
On 152 routes with Evans on the field, Egbuka was targeted on 18.4% of his routes with a 15% target share.
He averaged 1.34 yards per route, which would have ranked 59th among qualified receivers last season.
So, while this is an obvious win for Egbuka, I believe pointing out the magnitude of the difference is important.
Perhaps Chris Godwin can recover some form this season, and the Bucs have young options in the form of Jalen McMillan (also a winner) and Tez Johnson.
Still, Egbuka appears poised to be the clear No. 1 and see a WR1-level target share with Evans out of the picture.
Winner: D.J. Moore
The immediate reaction to the D.J. Moore trade focused on the seemingly high price for an older receiver coming off the worst season of his career.
All of that is fair.
Lost in that conversation, though, was just how much better Moore’s fantasy landscape became following the trade.
Among 141 receivers with at least 250 routes the last two seasons, Moore ranks 94th in off-target rate.
15.1% of his targets over the last two seasons have been deemed off target.
Bills receivers over that same timeframe are sixth in off-target rate at just 11.3%.
Moore is also entering a situation where the best pass catchers are not every-snap players.
Khalil Shakir ran a route on 74.9% of Buffalo’s passing plays in the games he was active last season.
Dalton Kincaid’s route rate was way down at 49.8% even when he was active, although health issues likely limited him.
Still, his route rate was just 62.9% in 2024.
Moore should be more of an every-snap player, which almost by default makes him the favorite to lead the Bills in targets.
That might not be a ton of targets since the Bills have been relatively run heavy under now head coach Joe Brady, but that Brady connection is also worth mentioning as a positive.
Moore had quality seasons under Brady when both were in Carolina, averaging 78 catches for 1,022 yards and 5.5 touchdowns in their two years together.
Is Moore the go-to No. 1 receiver the Bills really need for Josh Allen?
Probably not.
Is this trade a big boost for Moore’s fantasy value?
Absolutely.
Winner: Emanuel Wilson
Even though Klint Kubiak left to coach the Raiders, the Seahawks should remain a run-focused team under new OC Brian Fleury.
Fleury joined the team from the rival 49ers, where he worked from 2019 to 2025.
The 49ers have been a little more pass heavy over the last two seasons, but they still ranked 20th in neutral dropback rate last year.
Fleury was the run game coordinator in 2025.
Enter Emanuel Wilson, who was solid while filling in for Josh Jacobs in Green Bay over the last couple of years.
He has a 4.5 yards per carry average in his career with an 11.2% explosive run rate.
This is more about the opportunity, though.
Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL on January 17, which makes it very unlikely he is ready for Week 1.
George Holani and Kenny McIntosh are currently the only other backs on the depth chart.
The Seahawks could certainly add someone in the draft, but this is not a great class behind Jeremiyah Love, who will be long gone before the Seahawks make their first pick.
It is not far-fetched to imagine Wilson as the clear lead back on a team that wants to be near the top of the league in run rate for at least the first half of the season.
Wilson still has to dodge any additions the rest of the offseason and actually win the job, but he is suddenly in a great spot to return early fantasy value.
2026 Free Agency Fantasy Losers
Loser: De’Von Achane
Rich Hribar has already written about De’Von Achane in his deep dive into Malik Willis, so I am not going to spend too much time on him.
You should go check out his article.
But, to put it simply, Achane is less likely to be involved as a receiver with Willis at quarterback.
He already had concerning splits with (good) and without (bad) Tua Tagovailoa, and those are likely to be accentuated with a running quarterback.
33 quarterbacks qualified for passer rating last season.
Of those, 11 had a scramble rate above 6%, which is well below Willis’ 13.9% career mark but is still above the league average.
Those 11 quarterbacks targeted running backs on 16.4% of their attempts.
The other 22 quarterbacks targeted running backs on 18.8% of their attempts.
That is not the most scientific sample, but it simply illustrates a trend: Quarterbacks who scramble more tend to target running backs less.
Achane will likely remain a very good fantasy play, but hitting the absolute heights of a fantasy running back requires a level of passing game involvement he might not get with Willis at quarterback.
Loser: RJ Harvey
The Broncos were always expected to add to the backfield this offseason, but bringing back J.K. Dobbins is particularly worrisome for RJ Harvey since Dobbins was already the clear lead back over him when healthy last season.
Over the first 10 weeks of last season, Dobbins handled 72.9% of the running back carries.
He was effective in that role, averaging 5 yards per carry with an explosive run on 13.7% of his attempts (aka, being a healthy J.K. Dobbins).
He was only the RB22 in half-PPR points per game at that point because of his relative lack of involvement in the passing game and a lowly 4-touchdown total.
Still, the Broncos were a solid rushing team with Dobbins at the helm.
Dobbins was injured in Week 10, and Harvey took over as the lead back.
Harvey struggled to consistently produce in that role, averaging 3.4 yards per carry with a negative run on 20.8% of his attempts.
A second-round pick last year, the Broncos likely hoped they could use Dobbins for one year as a bridge and then hand the reins to Harvey.
They have now brought back Dobbins, and it is fair to wonder if they will look to make more additions to the backfield.
Over those first 10 weeks, Harvey was the RB31 in half-PPR scoring per game, and that includes the 6 touchdowns he scored on limited touches.
Harvey is a young player who could simply get better and take the full job.
Dobbins also has an extensive injury history.
Still, this is a net loss for Harvey.
Loser: Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren set new career highs in carries (211), rushing yards (958), and rushing touchdowns (6) last season while maintaining a solid role in the passing game (40-333-2).
He did not set the fantasy world on fire, finishing as the RB19 in per-game scoring in half PPR, but it was mostly what we hoped to see after Najee Harris moved on.
Now, Warren has traded Kenneth Gainwell for Rico Dowdle, a move that could push him back into the more passing-down role he occupied with Harris.
Dowdle is by no means a zero in the passing game – he has 99 targets over the last two seasons – but he ran a route on around 40% of his team’s dropbacks while working as the lead back in Dallas and Carolina.
Gainwell, for comparison, ran a route on 55.6% of his team’s dropbacks as the secondary option last season and led the Steelers in receptions.
Not the running backs.
He led the entire team.
Add in that Dowdle has a connection to new Steelers coach Mike McCarthy from their days together in Dallas, and it is fair to assume Dowdle has been brought in to be the early-down back.
That would push Warren back into the complementary role he filled when Harris was on the team.
He was good in that role, but it will be difficult for him to return consistent fantasy value if that is how the situation plays out.
Loser: Oronde Gadsden
2025 was a great debut season for Oronde Gadsden, but he struggled to keep his production going to close out the year.
That was partly due to route participation.
From Week 10 on, Gadsden was the TE16 in routes per team dropback, running a route on 65.2% of the Chargers’ passing plays.
He also did not earn targets at a high rate when he was on the field, getting the ball on 15.9% of his routes.
That is not a great combination for a fantasy tight end.
The offseason has brought some new concerns.
New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is expected to bring a stronger emphasis on the running game after the Chargers were fourth in neutral pass rate last year.
The Dolphins were 30th by that same metric last year, and they were 19th in 2024.
Los Angeles has also hinted at their plans in free agency.
They signed two players on the interior line, brought in blocking fullback Alec Ingold from the Dolphins, and spent big on blocking tight end Charlie Kolar.
Ingold and Kolar are big additions because the Dolphins played some of the highest rates of 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) in the league under McDaniel.
Nearly a third of Miami’s plays in his four years were from 21.
Gadsden is unlikely to be on the field in those looks, which will make it difficult for him to improve on that late-season route participation rate.
If things play out that way, then Gadsden will look like West Coast Dalton Kincaid, except that Kincaid has been targeted on 22.9% of his routes thus far in his career.
Unless Gadsden can start commanding a higher target rate per route, he is likely being overvalued in early fantasy drafts.
